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Earnings reports, the Fed will test the market rally in the week ahead

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A Wall Street sign is seen near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, May 4, 2021.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Investors will see whether stocks carry their newfound momentum into the week ahead, as major retailers, including Walmart and Home Depot, report earnings and housing data dominates the calendar.

The Federal Reserve may also play a role. Minutes from its last meeting will be released Wednesday, and after April’s hotter than expected consumer and producer inflation, market pros will watch it closely.

Central bank officials are also scheduled to make comments, including Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida who speaks next Monday.

Stocks have been volatile. The rally on Thursday and Friday was unable to reverse the week’s heavy losses. The defensive consumer staples, financials and materials were on track for a positive week among major sectors. The worst performers were consumer discretionary, off about 3.7% for the week, and tech, which was down 2.2%.

Technology shares were among the best performers in Friday’s rally, up about 2.1%. Energy was the best performer, up more than 3%.

“Watch it with a certain amount of trepidation,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. “It’s not like the things that spooked us this week, like inflation, are going away…I think the fact we bounced at the end of the week is constructive.” He added that he still expects the market to move forward with fits and starts.

Fed Ahead

The Fed minutes should basically be a replay of the last central bank meeting. But that was held before April’s Consumer Price Index was reported to be up a sizzling 4.2% year over year.

That last meeting also took place prior to the April employment report that showed just 266,000 payrolls, a quarter of what was expected.

“I think the Fed is willing to look through these weird data points. They’re thinking that one data point is not a trend,” said Joseph Song, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America.

But the markets have been focused on whether any data helps clarify how soon the Fed may start to talk about winding down its bond buying. That would be a precursor to slowly ending the $120 billion a month asset purchase program, and also a signal that it is one step closer to raising interest rates.

Hogan said when the weak employment report was released, the market view shifted away from the idea that the Fed could discuss tapering its bond buying when it holds its Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in late summer.

But the market moved back to that view when the hot CPI report was released Wednesday.

“We saw hot CPI, hot PPI,” said Hogan, referring to the producer price index. “That tells us the Fed could be behind the curve.”

The Fed has said it expects a transitory spike inflation, but concerns it may not be a temporary spike rippled through the market. But Hogan said investors took some comfort from declines in iron ore and copper, down nearly 2% for the week.

Retail earnings and housing

Big retailers report quarterly earnings throughout the week. Walmart and Home Depot will report Tuesday. Target, TJX and Lowe’s release results Wednesday, and B.J.’s Wholesale and Kohl’s on Thursday.

Another disappointing data point was Friday’s April’s retail sales, which came in flat with March. But they are still at a high level. Hogan said based on the sales report, retailers should have done well.

“You’re likely to hear the usual suspects are outperforming. It used to be Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s,” said Hogan. He said now others have joined the list, like TJX and Gap, and should do well.

Besides earnings, there is housing data. The National Association of Home Builders sentiment index will be released Monday, and housing starts are published Tuesday. Existing home sales will be issued on Friday.

Hogan said depending on the data, it may help the homebuilders which fell hard in the past week. He noted that D.R. Horton and Hovnanian were both down for the week.

“The home building index is off 5% for the week, even with it being up 1% [Friday]. This is a red-hot sector that has lots of implications,” he said. “What’s good for home sales is good for auto sales. It’s good for Home Depot and Lowe’s.”

Homebuilders were part of a broad swath of the market that was bouncing Friday.

Scott Redler, chief strategist at T3Live.com, said by the end of the week, some of the growth and tech names were trading better, like Facebook and Alphabet.

“The S&P 500 held the 50-day moving average, which is constructive,” he said.

The S&P 500 came within about a dozen points of its 50-day, which is the average price of the last 50 closes. It is often a level that acts as support, but if it is broken, it can signal a negative trend.

The S&P 500 was down about 1.5% for the week at 4,173.85. The Nasdaq ended the week at 13,429.98, down 2.3% on the week.

“The tech sector, which has been under pressure, held its yearly uptrend earlier in the week. Today it felt a little better than the rest of the week,” Redler said Friday. “It doesn’t mean you can go into everything, but you can tell traders are picking away at better acting stocks at these prices.”

Week ahead calendar

Monday

Earnings: Hostess Brands, Lordstown Motors, Tencent Music

8:30 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on CNBC

8:30 a.m. Empire manufacturing

10:00 a.m. NAHB index

10:25 a.m. Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida at Atlanta Fed conference

4:00 p.m. TIC data

6:00 p.m. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan

Tuesday

Earnings: Walmart, Home Depot, Macy’s, Baidu, Take-Two Interactive, Trip.com, NetEase

8:30 a.m. Housing starts

11:05 a.m. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan

Wednesday

Earnings: Target, Lowe’s, JD.Com, Cisco, Shoe Carnival, TJX, Eagle Materials, Analog Devices, L Brands

10:00 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on economy and monetary policy

2:00 p.m. FOMC minutes

Thursday

Earnings: BJ’s Wholesale, Kohl’s, Petco, Ralph Lauren, Applied Materials, Ross Stores, Deckers Outdoor, Hormel Foods, Palo Alto Networks

8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims

8:30a a.m. Philadelphia Fed

10:00 a.m. Leading indicators

10:00 a.m. St. Louis Fed’s Bullard

10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed’s Kaplan

Friday

Earnings: Deere, Foot Locker, Buckle, VF Corp, Booz Allen Hamilton

9:45 a.m. Markit Manufacturing PMI

9:45 a.m. Markit Services PMI

10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

12:15 p.m. Dallas Fed’s Kaplan, Atlanta Fed’s Bostic, and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin on a panel

1:30 p.m. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly

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BuzzFeed announces plans to go public via SPAC

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Jonah Peretti, Founder and CEO, Buzzfeed, speaks at the Wall Street Journal Digital Conference in Laguna Beach, California, U.S., October 18, 2017.

Lucy Nicholson | Reuters

BuzzFeed, a 15-year-old digital media company, announced Thursday it plans to go public via a merger with a publicly traded special purpose acquisition company. 

The company, merging with 890 Fifth Avenue Partners, is targeting a $1.5 billion valuation. The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter.

BuzzFeed also plans to acquire Complex Networks, a digital publisher that specializes in streetwear, music and culture, for $300 million. The deal is made up of $200 million in cash and $100 million of equity in BuzzFeed, the company said. They added it will “immediately accelerate BuzzFeed’s revenue growth.”

“With this acquisition, BuzzFeed becomes even better-positioned to thrive in an age of media consolidation,” the company said. BuzzFeed in November acquired news site HuffPost from Verizon Media for an undisclosed amount.

BuzzFeed generated $321 million in annual revenue and $31 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2020, in large part due to its e-commerce business, a spokesperson previously told CNBC. The company is estimating $654 million in revenue in 2022 and $117 million in adjusted EBITDA, according to an investor presentation.

SPAC deals have become an increasingly popular route to go public over this past year. Several digital publishers, including Bustle Digital Group, Vox Media and Vice Media, had held talks about a market debut via a SPAC, CNBC previously reported.

BuzzFeed will trade under the ticker symbol “BZFD” on the Nasdaq. The company said its management team will stay in place following the deal, with founder Jonah Peretti remaining CEO and Felicia DellaFortuna as its CFO.

“With today’s announcement, we’re taking the next step in BuzzFeed’s evolution, bringing capital and additional experience to our business,” Peretti said in a statement. The company has also bulked up its business in other areas, leaning into e-commerce, selling things like branded cookware, and affiliate commerce.

This story is developing. Please refresh for updates.

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Singapore to expand its vaccination campaign to everyone 12 and older on July 2

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People wearing face masks as a preventive measure against the spread of Covid-19 in Singapore.

Maverick Asio | SOPA Images | LightRocket | Getty Images

SINGAPORE — Singapore will expand its Covid vaccination program to all residents 12 and older starting early next month.

The government said Thursday that some permanent residents and long-term pass holders can begin booking appointments on July 2.

Since June 11, citizens between the ages of 12 and 39 had a priority window to book vaccinations. Singaporeans were originally given a two-week window, but the Ministry of Health said that period will be extended by one week.

Authorities approved the use of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for children 12 to 15 years old in mid-May.

The Southeast Asian country has one of the fastest vaccination rollouts in Asia-Pacific, but lags many countries in the West.

The health ministry said around 3 million people have received at least one dose of the Covid vaccine so far, of whom 2 million have been fully vaccinated. Singapore’s population is around 5.8 million people.

Accelerating vaccinations

Singapore will be ramping up its inoculation campaign, increasing daily doses to 80,000, up from 40,000 in May, authorities said.

The country previously extended the duration between first and second doses in order to allow more people to receive their first shot. But as the country speeds up its rollout, officials said some people who have already booked appointments will be able to receive their second shots sooner.

Health Minister Ong Ye Kung said Singapore aims to have two-thirds of its population fully vaccinated by August 9, the country’s National Day.

Ong added that the country has signed an advanced purchase agreement with biotech firm Novavax. Last week, the company said its vaccine candidate was 90.4% effective overall in a phase three clinical trial.

“We hope the vaccine supplies can arrive before the end of the year for those who want to take something that is not mRNA,” he said. “But in the meantime, please continue to consider mRNA vaccines. They work very well.”

Restrictions could potentially be loosened for fully vaccinated people

Finance Minister Lawrence Wong, who co-chairs Singapore’s Covid taskforce, also said authorities are discussing revising public health guidelines for people who are fully vaccinated.

“We could allow gatherings involving just vaccinated persons to have larger group sizes, and also relax the social distancing rules in such settings,” he said during a press conference, adding that this could apply to religious services, concerts and sporting events.

Wong added that the government is working on new guidelines for people in Singapore to be able to travel. For example, stay-home notices or hotel quarantines may be waived or shortened for vaccinated people, depending on the country they are returning from, he said.

“These are the, potentially, revised guidelines that will apply to vaccinated persons. We are still working through them and we will announce them when we are ready,” he said.

As of Thursday, Singapore has reported 62,493 cases of Covid-19 infections and 35 deaths.

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Here’s what you need to know

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People queue outside a vaccination center in Sydney on June 24, 2021, as residents were largely banned from leaving the city to stop a growing outbreak of the highly contagious Delta Covid-19 variant spreading to other regions.

SAEED KHAN | AFP | Getty Images

The “delta variant” has come to dominate headlines, having been discovered in India where it provoked an extreme surge in Covid-19 cases before spreading around the world.

But now a mutation of that variant has emerged, called “delta plus,” which is starting to worry global experts.

India has dubbed delta plus a “variant of concern,” and there are fears that it could potentially be more transmissible. In the U.K., Public Health England noted in its last summary that routine scanning of Covid cases in the country (where the delta variant is now responsible for the bulk of new infections) has found almost 40 cases of the delta variant, which has acquired the spike protein mutation K417N, i.e. delta plus.

It noted that, as of June 16, cases of the delta plus variant had also been identified in the U.S. (83 cases at the time the report was published last Friday) as well as Canada, India, Japan, Nepal, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Switzerland and Turkey.

India third wave?

As is common with all viruses, the coronavirus has mutated repeatedly since it emerged in China in late 2019. There have been a handful of variants that have emerged over the course of the pandemic that have changed the virus’ transmissibility, risk profile and even symptoms.

Read more: The fast-spreading delta Covid variant could have different symptoms, experts say

Several of those variants, such as the “alpha” variant (previously known as the “Kent” or “British” variant) and then the delta variant, have gone on to be dominant strains globally, hence the attention on delta plus.

India’s Health Ministry reportedly said Wednesday that it had found around 40 cases of the delta plus variant with the K417N mutation. The ministry released a statement on Tuesday in which it said that INSACOG, a consortium of 28 laboratories genome sequencing the virus in India during the pandemic, had informed it that the delta plus variant has three worrying characteristics.

These are, it said: increased transmissibility, stronger binding to receptors of lung cells and the potential reduction in monoclonal antibody response (which could reduce the efficacy of a life-saving monoclonal antibody therapy given to some hospitalized Covid patients).

India’s health ministry said it had alerted three states (Maharashtra, Kerala and Madhya Pradesh) after the delta plus variant was detected in genome sequenced samples from those areas.

The detection of a variation to the delta variant largely blamed for India’s catastrophic second wave of cases has stoked fears that India is ill-prepared for a potential third wave. But some experts are urging calm.

Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya, a physician-epidemiologist and vaccines and health systems expert based in New Delhi, told CNBC Thursday that that while the government should remain alert to the progress of the variant, there is “no reason to panic.”

“Epidemiologically speaking, I have no reason to believe that ‘Delta plus’ alters the current situation in a manner to accelerate or trigger the third wave,” he told CNBC via email.

“If we go by the currently available evidence, Delta plus is not very different from Delta variant. It is the same Delta variant with one additional mutation. The only clinical difference, which we know till now, is that Delta plus has some resistance to monoclonal antibody combination therapy. And that is not a major difference as the therapy itself is investigational and few are eligible for this treatment.”

He advised the public to follow Covid restrictions and to get vaccinated as soon as possible. Analysis from Public Health England released last week showed that two doses of the PfizerBioNTech or Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccines are highly effective against hospitalization from the delta variant.

The WHO has said that it is tracking recent reports of a “delta plus” variant. “An additional mutation … has been identified,” Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s Covid-19 technical lead said at a briefing last week.

“In some of the delta variants we’ve seen one less mutation or one deletion instead of an additional, so we’re looking at all of it.”

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