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US dollar moves, economic recovery, crude oil prices

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The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), operated by Japan Exchange Group Inc. (JPX), in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday, Nov. 30, 2020.

Toru Hanai | Bloomberg via Getty Images

SINGAPORE — Asia-Pacific markets were set to trade on a cautious note Friday.

Futures tied to Australia’s ASX 200 pointed to a near flat open while Nikkei futures indicated a slightly lower open for Japan’s benchmark index. The Japanese market was closed Thursday for a holiday.

That follows an overnight session on Wall Street where major U.S. indexes finished higher. Economic activity stateside picked up in the first three months of 2021 as GDP rose 6.4% on an annualized basis, but it fell slightly short of expectations.

“Strong US economic momentum has positive implications for the global economy,” wrote Kim Mundy, a senior economist and currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, in a morning note.

“In our view, the global economy will benefit from spill‑overs via higher US imports.  The combination of low interest rates, an improving US economy and an improving global economy is a recipe for the USD to continue on its downward trend,” Mundy added.

Currencies and oil

The U.S. dollar last traded at 90.614 against a basket of its peers. The dollar index is down from levels above 91.2 reached in the previous week.

The Japanese yen changed hands at 108.89 per dollar, comparatively weaker than levels below 108.00 that it traded at last week. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar traded higher by 0.14% at $0.7775.

Oil prices rose overnight on the back of a weaker dollar and economic optimism. U.S. crude rose 1.8% to $65.01 while global benchmark Brent added 1.9% to $68.56.

“Crude oil prices rallied as signs of further strength in demand continue to emerge,” ANZ analysts wrote in a morning note. “The emergence of several US cities from lockdown is stoking confidence of stronger demand in gasoline ahead of the key US summer driving season.”

They added that the renewed optimism in U.S. and Europe is “overshadowing headwinds in India, where a second wave of infections of Covid-19 are resulting in new travel restrictions being put in place.”

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Stock futures rise after Wall Street begins week with modest losses

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Pedestrians walk past the Nasdaq in New York on Sept. 3, 2020.

Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images

Futures contracts tied to the major U.S. stock indexes ticked higher at the start of the overnight session Monday evening after Wall Street kicked off the week with modest losses.

Dow futures added 50 points, while contracts tied to the S&P 500 advanced 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures rose a similar 0.1%.

The moves in the overnight session came after lingering weakness in technology stocks led the major indexes lower on Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 54.34 points, or 0.2%, to 34,327.79. The S&P 500 lost 0.3% to 4,163.29 as the tech sector pulled back 0.7%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4% to 13,379.05.

Big Tech stocks fell to start the week, with Apple and Netflix each down 0.9%. Microsoft shed 1.2%, while Tesla dropped more than 2% as famed investor Michael Burry revealed a big short position on the electric carmaker.

Communication services stock Discovery bucked that trend after AT&T announced Monday that it would merge WarnerMedia, which includes HBO, with Discovery. Discovery’s Class B stock jumped nearly 14%, while AT&T ended the day slightly lower after hitting a record high earlier in the session.

Growth-heavy stocks have remained under pressure in recent sessions as investors fret over whether a pop in inflation will entrench or blow over as the Federal Reserve expects. Inflation above the Fed’s 2% target for a sustained period could prompt the central bank to tighten monetary policy and dampen stocks that outperform the market when interest rates are low.

“Surging inflation data intensified the rift between secular growth stocks, which depend on lower-for-longer interest rates, and value-based investments, which need a steepening yield curve,” wrote Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

“Although markets anticipated a step change in the data due to economic reopening, the magnitude of the surprises has been outsized, driving equity volatility up and market indexes down from all-time highs,” she added. “Supply/demand imbalances in commodities, manufactured goods and even labor explain much of the jump in inflation, backing the argument that trend is transitory.”

Investors blamed that angst for the S&P 500’s dismal performance last week, which saw the broad market index fall 4% through midweek amid heightened inflation fears. The broad equity benchmark eventually rebounded and ended the week down 1.4%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, particularly sensitive to inflation fears, dropped 2.3% last week. The blue-chip Dow fell 1.1% in that period. All three benchmarks posted their worst week since February 26.

The Fed’s minutes from its last meeting, which will be released Wednesday, could offer some clues on policymakers’ thinking on inflation.

Elsewhere, the first-quarter earnings season is wrapping up with more than 90% of the S&P 500 companies having reported their results. So far, 86% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise, which would mark the highest percentage of positive earnings surprises since 2008 when FactSet began tracking this metric.

Walmart, Home Depot and Macy’s will deliver earnings on Tuesday.

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Biden tells Netanyahu U.S. supports ceasefire as Israel, Hamas tensions escalate

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US President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the COVID-19 response and the vaccination in the East Room at the White House in Washington, DC on May 17, 2021.

Nicholas Kamm | AFP | Getty Images

WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden in a Monday afternoon call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed his support for a ceasefire as fighting between Israel and Hamas enters a second week.

“The President reiterated his firm support for Israel’s right to defend itself against indiscriminate rocket attacks. The President welcomed efforts to address intercommunal violence and to bring calm to Jerusalem, ” according to a White House readout of the call.

Biden also called on Israel to ensure the protection of innocent civilians amid the conflict.

“The two leaders discussed progress in Israel’s military operations against Hamas and other terrorist groups in Gaza,” the statement added. Biden also discussed engaging with other partners and allies in the region in order to help de-escalate tensions.

Violence intensified over the weekend, with Israel conducting an airstrike Sunday that leveled several homes in the Gaza Strip. The strike, the deadliest yet in the ongoing conflict, killed at least 42 people. Meanwhile, more than 3,000 rockets bombarded Israeli cities.

On Sunday, Netanyahu defended the punishing airstrike on Saturday that collapsed a 12-story building housing international media, citing intelligence that Hamas was using a portion of the building to plan terror attacks.

A member of the Palestinian civil defence walks amidst the rubble of a building in Gaza city which housed the Intaj Bank linked to the Hamas movement which controls the Gaza Strip, on May 15, 2021.

Mahmud Hams | AFP | Getty Images

Netanyahu said that the building’s occupants, which included the Associated Press, broadcaster Al-Jazeera and other media agencies, were given an hour’s notice to evacuate before the strike.

“Here’s the intelligence we had,” Netanyahu told CBS Sunday program “Face the Nation.”

″[It’s] an intelligence office for the Palestinian terrorist organization housed in that building that plots and organizes the terror attacks against Israeli civilians. So, it’s a perfectly legitimate target,” he explained.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

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WarnerMedia-Discovery deal pressures ViacomCBS and NBCUniversal

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Shari Redstone, chairwoman of ViacomCBS and president of National Amusements, reacts as she celebrates her company’s merger at the Nasdaq Market site in New York, December 5, 2019.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

In the words of the great Tom Lehrer, “Who’s Next?

Now that AT&T has decided to separate WarnerMedia and merge with Discovery, the rest of the media world — particularly the smaller players — face new pressure to make their countermoves.

Even before this deal, it was clear that Lionsgate, MGM, Sony Pictures and AMC Networks were probably too small to compete in a streaming world where success depends on a massive store of content and global reach.

But ViacomCBS and Comcast‘s NBCUniversal are much bigger, and probably assumed they had some time — at least a year — to see how many subscribers signed up for their streaming offerings, Paramount+ and Peacock.

“Within the next two years, it’s going to be put up or shut up for all of us,” said David Zaslav, Discovery’s CEO who will take the top job at the combined company, in December. “Can you show you’re scaling? Are you going to be a player in the U.S.? Are you going to be a player around the world?”

Under pressure

That timeline is shorter now.

Suddenly, both ViacomCBS and NBCUniversal seem subscale as they attempt to put together global streaming services. They aren’t trying to be niche players, such as Starz or AMC+.

That means both will need more content to compete against Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney and whatever the new name of WarnerMediaDiscovery will be.

The obvious move would be for ViacomCBS and NBCUniversal to merge. But a combined ViacomCBS/NBCUniversal would have two U.S. broadcast networks — CBS and NBC — housed under the same corporate roof. That won’t fly with U.S. regulators. While the parent companies could theoretically spin out or sell them, the broadcast networks provide so much value to both companies — and their streaming services — that it seems unlikely.

Further, Shari Redstone controls ViacomCBS and Brian Roberts controls NBCUniversal through his family’s Comcast shares. Their dual class share structure is another obstacle for both companies, as it makes it hard for outsiders to pressure the companies to make changes the executives don’t favor. But it’s not a deal stopper — Discovery had several classes of shares too, but John Malone was willing to eliminate his voting shares to get a deal done with WarnerMedia.

Four options

That leaves Comcast and ViacomCBS with four likely options.

Buy. If both companies feel their streaming services can compete around the world, they can go on global and domestic acquisition sprees. It may take several deals to get to a scaled position, as they piece together smaller U.S.-based assets and larger global media companies in Latin America and Europe.

Sell. They could also sell. Shari Redstone is more open to the idea of selling ViacomCBS than her father, according to people familiar with the matter. It’s unclear if Roberts would consider selling NBCUniversal. Potential buyers could include Amazon or the newly merged WarnerMedia-Discovery. Apple and Netflix continue to hover along the periphery, but neither company has ever shown much interest in making big media acquisitions.

Reduce their ambitions. The third option is to throw in the towel on being a global streaming service. Instead, NBCUniversal and ViacomCBS could license their content to other, larger streamers and wind down Paramount+ and Peacock if they fail to gain global traction.

Bundle. Option four is similar but less drastic. ViacomCBS and NBCUniversal could begin bundling their streaming services together or finding new streaming partners to increase global distribution through discounted offerings. The main problem with this strategy is it limits the upside for both companies, who won’t be able to compete with larger players for top content and breadth of programming.

The fifth option — inaction — is no longer a viable strategy. The pressure is on Roberts, NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell, Redstone and ViacomCBS CEO Bob Bakish to find exciting go-forward solutions for their companies.

Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC.

WATCH: What the WarnerMedia-Discovery deal could mean for the streaming wars

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