Connect with us

World

Here’s what it’s doing to tackle it

Published

on

A man with her protective face mask walks in Vellaces neighborhood after new restrictions came into force as Spain sees record daily coronavirus (Covid-19) cases, in Madrid, Spain on September 21, 2020. (Photo by Burak

Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

LONDON — There can be no doubt now that Europe is facing the much-feared “second wave” of coronavirus cases, after a lull in new infections in summer when severe restrictions on public life helped stop the spread of the virus.

Now, as cases rise rapidly in the region, various European nations are taking action in an effort to stop the surge in infections and prevent a significant rise in fatalities.

To date, there have been almost 2.9 million confirmed cases of the virus in Europe and over 186,000 people have died, data from the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention shows.

Despite the risks, leaders in the region are reluctant to impose nationwide lockdowns again, given the economic and societal implications of such moves, and are now looking at more targeted, localized measures.

Here’s a snapshot of what Europe’s biggest economies are doing to stop the spread of the virus:

Spain

Spain has recorded 671,468 infections — the highest number in Europe, and 30,663 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University data. On Monday, it reported more than 30,000 new cases since Friday, Reuters reported.

Madrid has become a virus hotspot, with almost 800 new cases reported Monday. The surge has prompted the president of the city’s regional government to request help from the army to help battle the rise and parts of the capital have been put in lockdown, prompting protests.

On Monday, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said data showed that, in Madrid, “the infection rate is double the national level, the numbers of intensive care beds in use is three times the national level.” He signaled more stringent measures could be introduced in the city, saying it “demands its own plan,” El Pais reported

France

France has the second-highest number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Europe after Spain, with 496,974 infections to date and 31,346 deaths, JHU data notes. 

France reported 5,298 further cases on Monday from the previous day, a lower daily count due to the weekend data lag. Last Friday, France reported 13,215 new infections, its highest daily number since the start of the pandemic.

As a result of surging cases, the city of Lyon (France’s third-largest city) has introduced tighter restrictions, limiting public gatherings and prohibiting the sale and consumption of alcohol outdoors after 8pm, France 24 reported Monday. Visits to nursing home residents will also be restricted to two per week. Similar restrictions have already been imposed in other cities including Marseille and Bordeaux.

UK

The U.K. has also seen a dramatic rise in coronavirus cases over recent days, prompting the government to introduce localized lockdown measures in parts of northern England and more national restrictions. To date, the country has recorded just over 400,000 coronavirus cases and 41,877 deaths, according to the JHU.

On Monday, the government announced that bars and restaurants must close at 10 p.m. Groups of more than six people are also not allowed to meet.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will address the nation at 8 p.m. local time Tuesday evening and is expected to announce further measures. He is also said to be considering a “mini” lockdown of two weeks to try to act as a “circuit-breaker” in an effort to stop the spread of the virus.

The government’s chief medical and scientific advisors warned on Monday that, without action, the U.K. could see up to 50,000 new coronavirus cases per day by mid-October, which could lead to 200-plus deaths per day by November.

Germany

Germany was praised for its initial response to the first wave of the coronavirus crisis. To date, Germany has recorded over 275,000 cases, but has reported fewer than 10,000 deaths, JHU data shows, a far lower number of fatalities than its European counterparts.

Nonetheless, data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) shows that cases are rising, particularly in the cities of Munich and Hamburg.

On Tuesday, a further 1,821 new infections were registered after a rise of 922 cases reported Monday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has reportedly called for a crisis summit next week with regional governors, German media reported Monday.

Munich has tightened rules on face masks, which must now be worn in public, and contact restrictions. German Health Minister Jens Spahn has also said Germany will step up its testing regime as cases rise.

On Monday, the RKI called for “the entire population to be committed to infection control” by consistently observing rules of distance and hygiene, and advising that “crowds of people should be avoided if possible and celebrations should be limited to the closest circle of family and friends.”

Italy

Italy was the epicenter of Europe’s first outbreak in late winter, with the first outbreak in Europe appearing in the north of the country in February. To date, Italy has reported almost 300,000 cases and over 35,000 fatalities. 

Italy is also seeing a rise in new infections, but not at the rate of its neighbors. On Monday, for example, it reported 1,350 new cases in the last 24 hours, the health ministry said.

Italian politicians are reluctant to return to a severe lockdown that saw Italians banned from leaving their homes for all but the most essential reasons.

Instead, Italy appears to be looking to test people arriving from other European virus hotspots. Health Minister Roberto Speranza said in a Facebook post Monday that he had signed an order making it obligatory for people arriving in Italy “from Paris or other parts of France with significant circulation” of the coronavirus to be tested.

Speranza added that European data on Covid-19 “must not be underestimated,” and that while “Italy is better off than other countries … great prudence is still needed to avoid rendering the sacrifices made up to now in vain.”

Source link

World

Rising rates seem to signal a recovery is near, but investors wonder whether they can be believed

Published

on

A worker uses a nail gun while installing trim in a home under construction at a Romanelli and Hughes Building Co. subdivision in Dublin, Ohio, July 9, 2020.

Ty Wright | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Bonds, it would seem, are speaking the bulls’ language.

Treasury yields rolled to a four-month high last week, the 10-year note reaching 0.84%, as U.S. economic data continue to arrive generally better than expected and the markets anticipate further fiscal-support worth trillions either sooner or later, under this administration or the next.

Bonds racked up the style points, too, in ways that Wall Street tends to read as signs of better economic growth to come. The spread between five- and 30-year Treasurys hit nearly a four-year high, and corporate debt has traded firm against the rising government rates.

The gust of selling in the Treasury market cleared the way for more cyclical, financial and value stocks to improve relative to the big growth stocks that have been largely in pullback mode since before Labor Day. Bank shares in the S&P 500 last week gained more than 6%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 managed a gain versus about a 2% decline for big momentum stocks as a group.

All this is encouraging as far as it goes, implying investors are gaining comfort with a solid growth trajectory into 2021, perhaps boosted by another fiscal infusion, without new Covid-related restrictions undercutting the recovery.

The ‘reflation’ trade

Still, it’s worth considering other drivers of the backup in yields and related equity reactions.

Fidelity’s head of macro strategy Jurrien Timmer last week notes that Treasury yields have simply been catching up to other indicators of a “reflation” trade that have been working for a while.

The idea here is, assets geared to a global economic quickening have been climbing off their post-Covid lows for months, making the yield rise a belated and grudging follower and not a harbinger of fresh insight about the economy.

Bond folks are also pointing out the yield move coincided with commentary by Federal Reserve officials casting some doubt on any plans for the Fed to shift its buying to longer-dated Treasurys to suppress their yields as the government prepares to ramp up its debt issuance to fund the deficit. And hedging by mortgage-securities holders could have accelerated the bump in yields.

Some technical factors, too, might restrain further lift in yields. The 10-year Treasury yield has just levitated enough to meet its steeply down-sloping 200-day average, a potential friction area for the yield rally on a first approach.

Bank of America noted Friday that the spread between U.S. and German 10-year government yields has grown to multi-month highs. At a time when currency hedges are inexpensive and the dollar weak, this should draw overseas buyers to Treasurys to capture richer yields – and ultimately to cap them

Yields trigger value stock move

Whether the start of a long-running expansion in yields or not, the action in bonds is enabling another attempt by value stocks to narrow their yawning performance gap against growth-company shares.

The Russell 1000 Value index relative to the Russell 1000 Growth measure has gained some traction, and to some eyes, is building a foundation for further comeback.

Still, the prominent spike in this relationship back in June also generated enthusiastic calls that the long-awaited renaissance for value strategies was at hand. The peak of Treasury yields and value relative performance was June 8, days after a surprisingly strong jobs report and at a peak of “reopening the economy” enthusiasm. What followed was a reversal in value, a pullback in the S&P 500 as the Sunbelt Covid-case surge unfolded, a strong bond rally and three months of furious Big Tech growth-stock outperformance.

There is no handy way to determine if this display of reflationary energy in financial markets is another head fake. But it makes sense to stay alert to the possibility.

Meantime, the broad stock market has pulled itself into a neutral, somewhat indecisive condition.

‘Mixed, muddled and inconclusive’

On one hand, the S&P sagged a couple of times last week toward the 3400 area, which traders consider the border between its recent breakout range and the former correction zone. The index finished off half a percent for the week, some 3.5% below its early-September peak.

The broadening out of the tape allowed the index to withstand diminishing hopes of a quick stimulus deal and absorb further pressure from mega-cap Nasdaq stocks without breaking its uptrend. Yet that Nasdaq pressure reflects some fatigue among former leaders. Amazon, Apple, Tesla and Zoom Video, to name just a few, have struggled, while homebuilders, semiconductors and cloud-software have come off the boil.

Stocks of companies reporting results responded without much enthusiasm, even for big upside surprises, a sign investors already assumed good numbers were on the way.

And while this looks like benign ebb-and-flow at the index level, investor sentiment and positioning has not reset much from fairly aggressive postures. This is evident in hedge-fund leverage, rampant speculation in upside call options, individual-investor attitudes and general commentary implying most everyone is looking to catch a post-election rally no matter the outcome.

At the end of last week, Citi strategist Tobias Levkovich wrote, “The backdrop for the equity market is mixed, muddled and inconclusive.” Investors leaning bullish, valuations fairly stout, indexes hard-pressed to rise easily without dominant growth stocks working and the Street attitudes toward the election swinging from intense anxiety in September to confidence that any outcome is market-friendly now.

Last week’s lethargic action could well be the market’s chewing through these issues and creating a chance for both bulls and bears to second-guess their views. For what it’s worth, one of the strongest seasonal stretches of the calendar starts early this coming week, just as industrial and Big Tech earnings bombard the market.

Through it all should come a few more hints of whether the bond market’s upbeat-seeming message is worth heeding.

Source link

Continue Reading

World

China to reveal its five-year (FYP) growth strategy in Xi Jinping era

Published

on

Continue Reading

World

One technique for staying upbeat during the pandemic

Published

on

As the coronavirus pandemic rages on, it can be difficult to remain upbeat.

Aside from the health implications and associated financial stressors, uncertainty over the outcome of the virus has eroded one of the key contributors to our overall happiness, making optimism hard to obtain.

“A sense of control is very important for happiness,” Tali Sharot, a cognitive neuroscientist and author of “The Optimism Bias,” told CNBC Make It.

Indeed, in her research during the height of lockdowns, Sharot and her peers at University College London found that control was the number one contributor to people’s overall level of happiness: Those who felt they had a sense of agency in their day-to-day lives were far happier than those who did not.

In the months since then, people have adapted to the pandemic and the average person’s happiness level has returned to a “baseline,” said Sharot, describing happiness like a treadmill.

Tali Sharot, cognitive neuroscientist at University College London and author of “The Optimism Bias”

Tali Sharot

“You can go up and down, but people do converge to a certain baseline of happiness,” she said. “That’s true when things are very, very difficult; they eventually find their way back to that baseline. But also when things are good; after a while, they adapt to these good things and go back to the baseline.”

However, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t find new ways to boost our happiness levels, said Sharot.

One of the best ways of doing that is to start making plans, or what she calls “anticipatory events.” Such tactics can not only help us regain feelings of excitement but also that sense of control, she said.

Anticipation makes us happy in and of itself.

Tali Sharot

cognitive neuroscientist, University College London

“Anticipation makes us happy in and of itself,” said Sharot. Indeed, in a 2010 Dutch study of close to 1,000 holidaymakers, researchers found that the act of planning a holiday contributes a greater boost to respondents’ happiness levels than the aftermath of the trip itself.

Of course, planning for the future can be easier said than done right now. With so many unknowns ahead and further potential lockdowns looming, it can be difficult to arrange anything with certainty.

However, such plans don’t need to be huge or immovable. They could range from vacation for next summer to smaller highlights like dinner with friends, watching a movie or going on a hike.

“It’s important to still get into the habit of making those plans, putting them in the diary, and having things that we can look forward to,” she said.

Don’t miss: Why optimism could be unhelpful in a pandemic, according to behavioral psychologists

Like this story? Subscribe to CNBC Make It on YouTube!

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending