Connect with us

World

Blackstone warns of ‘lost decade’ with ‘anemic’ stock market returns

Published

on

The coming years could be a “lost decade” for equity returns as companies struggle to grow their earnings, Blackstone’s Executive Vice Chairman, Tony James, told CNBC on Wednesday.

James, who’s attending the virtual Singapore Summit, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that stock prices may not rise further after becoming fully valued over a “five- to 10-year horizon.”

“I think this could be a lost decade in terms of equity appreciation,” he said, referring to a term commonly used to describe a period in the 1990s when Japan experienced economic stagnation. 

He explained that current low interest rates may not dip further and may instead rise to more normal levels in the coming years.

Higher interest rates, in many instances, tend to negatively affect corporate earnings and stock prices. High borrowing costs will eat into company profits and hurt share prices.

There’s a hunger for yield so investors are coming off the sidelines … and looking for investments that they can get some kind of returns.

Tony James

Executive vice chairman, Blackstone

In addition, companies will face “plenty of headwinds” that put pressure on earnings, he said. That include higher taxes, increase in operating costs, less efficient supply chains and “deglobalization” that will hurt productivity, explained James.  

“All of that will be economic headwinds for companies. So I think you can have disappointing long term earnings growth with multiples coming in a little bit, and I can see anemic equity returns over the next five to 10 years,” he added.

Near zero interest rates drive markets up

Despite the severe economic hit from the coronavirus pandemic, U.S. stock markets have climbed higher after plunging in March.

James attributed such momentum to the Federal Reserve bringing interest rates down to near zero, which left investors hunting for yield with few options to park their money. That’s why investors are piling into riskier bonds and stocks, he explained.

“Zero interest rates is the driving force here, near zero interest rates,” he said.

“There’s a hunger for yield so investors are coming off the sidelines — there’s still a lot of money on the sidelines, actually — and looking for investments that they can get some kind of returns,” he added.

While that resulted in stock markets that are “fully valued” and “a little ahead of itself,” the U.S. central bank deserves credit for preventing what could have been a “major meltdown,” said James.

“The Fed move was unprecedented size and speed … without that, there was serious risk of spiraling down to a kind of depression and when you start having that credit problems, it will ripple through markets very quickly.”  

Source link

World

Nikola founder Trevor Milton forfeits $166 million in stock and gets to keep $3.1 billion under separation deal

Published

on

Continue Reading

World

Stock sell-off accelerates and is expected to get worse before it gets better

Published

on

Continue Reading

World

Here’s what it’s doing to tackle it

Published

on

A man with her protective face mask walks in Vellaces neighborhood after new restrictions came into force as Spain sees record daily coronavirus (Covid-19) cases, in Madrid, Spain on September 21, 2020. (Photo by Burak

Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

LONDON — There can be no doubt now that Europe is facing the much-feared “second wave” of coronavirus cases, after a lull in new infections in summer when severe restrictions on public life helped stop the spread of the virus.

Now, as cases rise rapidly in the region, various European nations are taking action in an effort to stop the surge in infections and prevent a significant rise in fatalities.

To date, there have been almost 2.9 million confirmed cases of the virus in Europe and over 186,000 people have died, data from the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention shows.

Despite the risks, leaders in the region are reluctant to impose nationwide lockdowns again, given the economic and societal implications of such moves, and are now looking at more targeted, localized measures.

Here’s a snapshot of what Europe’s biggest economies are doing to stop the spread of the virus:

Spain

Spain has recorded 671,468 infections — the highest number in Europe, and 30,663 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University data. On Monday, it reported more than 30,000 new cases since Friday, Reuters reported.

Madrid has become a virus hotspot, with almost 800 new cases reported Monday. The surge has prompted the president of the city’s regional government to request help from the army to help battle the rise and parts of the capital have been put in lockdown, prompting protests.

On Monday, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said data showed that, in Madrid, “the infection rate is double the national level, the numbers of intensive care beds in use is three times the national level.” He signaled more stringent measures could be introduced in the city, saying it “demands its own plan,” El Pais reported

France

France has the second-highest number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Europe after Spain, with 496,974 infections to date and 31,346 deaths, JHU data notes. 

France reported 5,298 further cases on Monday from the previous day, a lower daily count due to the weekend data lag. Last Friday, France reported 13,215 new infections, its highest daily number since the start of the pandemic.

As a result of surging cases, the city of Lyon (France’s third-largest city) has introduced tighter restrictions, limiting public gatherings and prohibiting the sale and consumption of alcohol outdoors after 8pm, France 24 reported Monday. Visits to nursing home residents will also be restricted to two per week. Similar restrictions have already been imposed in other cities including Marseille and Bordeaux.

UK

The U.K. has also seen a dramatic rise in coronavirus cases over recent days, prompting the government to introduce localized lockdown measures in parts of northern England and more national restrictions. To date, the country has recorded just over 400,000 coronavirus cases and 41,877 deaths, according to the JHU.

On Monday, the government announced that bars and restaurants must close at 10 p.m. Groups of more than six people are also not allowed to meet.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will address the nation at 8 p.m. local time Tuesday evening and is expected to announce further measures. He is also said to be considering a “mini” lockdown of two weeks to try to act as a “circuit-breaker” in an effort to stop the spread of the virus.

The government’s chief medical and scientific advisors warned on Monday that, without action, the U.K. could see up to 50,000 new coronavirus cases per day by mid-October, which could lead to 200-plus deaths per day by November.

Germany

Germany was praised for its initial response to the first wave of the coronavirus crisis. To date, Germany has recorded over 275,000 cases, but has reported fewer than 10,000 deaths, JHU data shows, a far lower number of fatalities than its European counterparts.

Nonetheless, data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) shows that cases are rising, particularly in the cities of Munich and Hamburg.

On Tuesday, a further 1,821 new infections were registered after a rise of 922 cases reported Monday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has reportedly called for a crisis summit next week with regional governors, German media reported Monday.

Munich has tightened rules on face masks, which must now be worn in public, and contact restrictions. German Health Minister Jens Spahn has also said Germany will step up its testing regime as cases rise.

On Monday, the RKI called for “the entire population to be committed to infection control” by consistently observing rules of distance and hygiene, and advising that “crowds of people should be avoided if possible and celebrations should be limited to the closest circle of family and friends.”

Italy

Italy was the epicenter of Europe’s first outbreak in late winter, with the first outbreak in Europe appearing in the north of the country in February. To date, Italy has reported almost 300,000 cases and over 35,000 fatalities. 

Italy is also seeing a rise in new infections, but not at the rate of its neighbors. On Monday, for example, it reported 1,350 new cases in the last 24 hours, the health ministry said.

Italian politicians are reluctant to return to a severe lockdown that saw Italians banned from leaving their homes for all but the most essential reasons.

Instead, Italy appears to be looking to test people arriving from other European virus hotspots. Health Minister Roberto Speranza said in a Facebook post Monday that he had signed an order making it obligatory for people arriving in Italy “from Paris or other parts of France with significant circulation” of the coronavirus to be tested.

Speranza added that European data on Covid-19 “must not be underestimated,” and that while “Italy is better off than other countries … great prudence is still needed to avoid rendering the sacrifices made up to now in vain.”

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending