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JP Morgan Chase (JPM) earnings Q4 2019 crush estimates

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J.P. Morgan Chase posted profit and revenue that smashed through analysts’ expectations on a strong rebound in trading revenue at the end of 2019.

The bank said Tuesday that fourth-quarter profit rose 21% to $8.52 billion, or $2.57 a share, compared with the $2.35 estimate of analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. Managed revenue climbed 9% to $29.2 billion, compared with the $27.94 billion estimate. Shares of the bank gained 2.1% in midday trading. 

CEO Jamie Dimon said the investment bank produced record revenue for a fourth quarter, aided by the rebound in trading revenue from a challenging period a year ago. The strong results in trading helped offset the impact of compressed margins across retail and commercial banking businesses as interest rates dropped.

Profit in the investment bank climbed 48% to $2.9 billion, mainly on trading results. Bond trading revenue surged 86% to $3.4 billion, exceeding the $2.61 billion estimate by roughly $800 million, as fixed-income desks were humming, particularly in securitized products and rates. Stock traders posted a 15% increase in revenue to $1.5 billion, compared with the $1.37 billion estimate.

“JP Morgan Chase produced strong results in the fourth quarter of 2019, capping off a solid year for the firm where we achieved many records, including record revenue and net income,” Dimon said in the release. “While we face a continued high level of complex geopolitical issues, global growth stabilized, albeit at a lower level, and resolution of some trade issues helped support client and market activity towards the end of the year.”

CFO Jennifer Piepszak said last month that trading revenue was “meaningfully” higher in the fourth quarter versus a year earlier. The rebound comes from the industry’s’ fixed-income trading operations, projected to rise 25% on average, versus a 3% bump in stock trading revenue, KBW analyst Brian Kleinhanzl wrote last month.

In the firm’s huge retail banking division, fourth-quarter profit rose 5% to $4.2 billion. While the division’s overall revenue climbed 3% to $14 billion, helped by strong credit card and auto loan results, in the core banking business revenue dropped 2% to $6.4 billion as margins shrank on lower interest rates.

The firm’s commercial bank posted a 9% drop in profit to $938 million as lower net interest income compressed margins and the bank boosted its provision for credit losses. Asset and wealth management posted a 30% increase in profit to $785 million as rising asset levels boosted results.

Lower interest rates impacted the bank’s net yield on interest-earning assets, which fell to 2.38% from 2.55% a year earlier, slightly better than the 2.37% estimate.

J.P. Morgan, the nation’s biggest bank by assets, was the first financial institution to report earnings. Later Tuesday, Citigroup reported earnings that exceeded expectations, but Wells Fargo fell short on earnings and revenue.

Bank stocks finished 2019 on a tear, outpacing the broader stock indexes in the fourth quarter as investors rushed into an under-owned sector. J.P. Morgan, in particular, surged last year, climbing about 40%, prompting some analysts to cut their recommendations based on valuation.

But banks face pressure this year as interest rates stay low or are even slashed further. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rates for the third time in October, and that pressures banks’ net interest income, or the revenue they get from collecting loan payments, minus the interest they pay to depositors.

Here’s what Wall Street expected:

Earnings: $2.35 a share, a 19% increase from a year earlier, according to Refinitiv.
Revenue: $27.94 billion, a 4.2% increase from a year earlier.
Net Interest Margin: 2.37%, according to FactSet
Trading Revenue: Fixed income $2.61 billion, Equities $1.37 billion

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A digital yuan could help countries evade US sanctions, experts say

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China’s central bank is working on a digital yuan.

Luis Diaz Devesa | Getty Images

A digital yuan could allow some countries to avoid U.S. sanctions and increase the Chinese government’s influence, experts told CNBC.

The People’s Bank of China is working on a digital yuan but has released very few details about the technology behind it or the timeline of its release.

But experts are concerned about the potential power this could give the Chinese government.

Neha Narula, director of the Digital Currency Initiative at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), described a simulation that took part in November involving a number of people including Larry Summers and former U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter. It was organized by Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. Narula was part of the simulation.

The participants simulated a White House National Security Council meeting in response to a major security crisis.

One of the situations involved North Korea developing a missile that had the capability to reach the U.S. It was funded by the digital yuan which allowed North Korea to bypass the global banking system and U.S. sanctions.

“It made it really clear that this (development of digital yuan) is a national security concern,” Narula said at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

“Financial sanctions are a very important tool to the United States and though it might not happen immediately, one must consider the risk of a digital currency issued by another country gaining market share and affecting the U.S.’s ability to engage in financial sanctions and use them as tool.”

Concerns about China’s digital currency have increased. In November, Harvard University professor and economist Kenneth Rogoff warned about the risk of a digital yuan being used for “underground” activities.

“A US-regulated digital currency could in principle be required to be traceable by U.S. authorities, so that if North Korea were to use it to hire Russian nuclear scientists, or Iran were to use it to finance terrorist activity, they would run a high risk of being caught, and potentially even blocked,” Rogoff wrote in the U.K.’s Guardian newspaper.

“If, however, the digital currency were run out of China, the U.S. would have far fewer levers to pull. Western regulators could ultimately ban the use of China’s digital currency, but that wouldn’t stop it from being used in large parts of Africa, Latin America, and Asia, which in turn could engender some underground demand even in the U.S. and Europe.”

Rogoff noted that the U.S. has sanctions against 12 countries including Russia. A digital yuan could hurt the U.S.’s ability to use sanctions, Rogoff noted in an argument similar to Narula’s.

“Just as technology has disrupted media, politics, and business, it is on the verge of disrupting America’s ability to leverage faith in its currency to pursue its broader national interests.”

There have been rising calls for a digital U.S. dollar. Christopher Giancarlo, former chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) spoke on the sidelines of Davos about the need for the U.S. to issue a digital currency.

Experts have also raised other concerns about the digital yuan including the lack of privacy it is likely to have.

“Having a fully digital currency gives the person in charge of the digital currency a lot more power,” Jeff Schumacher, CEO of 55 Foundry, a company incubator and investor, told CNBC at Davos.

“China needs this power to continue its control over its people. Privacy will be weak and the government will have the ability to know about every transaction. It also could be a preparatory step to let its currency float. There are multiple currencies in China (a trade currency and a mainland currency). China cannot sustain this multi currency approach.”

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ECB policy review an opportunity to ‘reconnect with citizens’

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Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), addresses the media during a news conference following the meeting of the governing council of the ECB in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on December 12, 2019.

Daniel Roland | AFP | Getty Images

A new policy review launched Thursday will help the European Central Bank (ECB) to reconnect with the public, according to ECB Governing Council member and Dutch central bank President Klaas Knot.

At its first policy meeting of 2020, the central bank left interest rates unchanged but kickstarted its first monetary policy review since 2003, in a bid to greater understand why inflation remains consistently below its target of close to 2%.

The review will assess how the ECB looks at price stability, along with its monetary policy toolkit, economic and monetary analyses and communication practices. Financial stability, employment and environmental sustainability will also be in the spotlight.

Euro zone inflation was confirmed at 1.3% year-on-year in December, but Knot told CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Friday that the Dutch public estimated that it sat at 9% in a recent domestic poll. He suggested that there was a gap in perception due to the ECB’s inflation measure omitting owner-occupied housing costs.

While southern European central bankers have tended to deviate in their monetary policy tone from their northern counterparts, Knot denied a rift among the Governing Council.

“We all agree that inflation has been below our aim, and we want to know why this has been the case, why controllability of inflation has fallen short of our expectations, why there is so much fundamental uncertainty, and also of course a question like ‘do we measure inflation correctly?'” he said.

“In and of itself, that is a technocratic question. That is not a question of east versus west or north versus south, I think we just want to get the right answer, and perception of our citizens is important.”

Knot added that while the central bank has worked to perfect its communication with the markets, it had “underestimated” the importance of the 330 million citizens impacted by its policy decisions. He suggested that the review is “an opportunity to reconnect with our citizens.”

Fiscal spending role

In a press conference following the ECB’s decision, President Christine Lagarde reiterated her call for “other policy areas” to “contribute more decisively” in order for the euro zone economy to capitalize on the central bank’s accommodative monetary measures.

Calls for governments to be more amenable to fiscal spending echo those of her predecessor Mario Draghi, and Lagarde added that the “implementation of structural policies in euro area countries needs to be substantially stepped up” to boost productivity and growth potential.

Speaking to CNBC on Friday, Portuguese Finance Minister and Eurogroup President Mario Centeno said European governments were already launching public investment programs in order to respond both to regional challenges such as the manufacturing slowdown, and global issues like climate change.

He also dismissed concerns that a potential change to how the ECB calculates or measures inflation could have a destabilizing effect on the euro zone economy.

“It is quite important to make all strands of policy action in Europe coherent. This means fiscal, this means monetary policy, this means competition, climate action,” Centeno told CNBC’s Karen Tso.

He added that he expects the review process to look to “optimize the extent to which monetary policy can have a positive impact in our economies.”

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Lagarde and Mnuchin clash over energy transition plan

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From left to right, Zhu Min, deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Treasury secretary, Olaf Scholz, Germany’s finance minister, and Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), attend a panel session on the closing day of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, on Friday, Jan. 24, 2020.

Bloomberg

The president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, and the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin laid bare their stark differences over how the world should transition to cleaner energy sources.

The corporate world’s role in protecting the environment has been a central theme of this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Speaking on a panel Friday as the event drew to a close, Lagarde told the audience that central banks needed to lead the economic modeling of how changes to the environment should be costed and mitigated.

Lagarde said banks, accountants, companies and ratings agencies would need to move away from quarterly and medium-term forecasts and start thinking in terms of thirty years out.

Responding to the new ECB president directly, Mnuchin said he didn’t think forecasting the cost of protecting the environment was possible.

“Christine, I think you can have a lot of people and model it, but I just don’t want to kid ourselves. I think there is no way we can possibly model what these risks are over the next 30 years with a level of certainty, given what I think is the changes in technology along the way,” he said.

Lagarde responded directly, suggesting that long-term modeling would help press firms to understand the cost and process of switching to new, and less carbon-intensive, energy sources.

“If we can push companies into the direction of actually anticipating the transition, pricing it, and making sure that they move to cleaner and cleaner energy uses, then it helps,” she said.

Interpreting that as a direct cost to a business, Mnuchin responded sharply.

“I don’t think we know how to price these things,” he said, adding that the current pricing of future greener energy sources was being inflated.

“So, I think we are overestimating the cost. So, if you want to put a tax on people, go ahead and put a carbon tax. That is a tax on hard working people. I personally think the costs are going to be much lower 10 years from now — because of technology — than we think they are today,” he said.

Earlier, Mnuchin argued that the U.S. had become much more efficient through carbon technology and the use of energy, but named China and India as countries which needed to offer “significant improvement in terms of environmental issues.”

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