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A blueprint for trading the different trade war outcomes

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Citi’s most pessimistic case occurs if the U.S. and China fail to reach an agreement or a rollover of the March 2 deadline. Tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods would increase to 25 percent from 10 percent, it said. Citi also expects Washington would attempt to exert further downward pressure on the Chinese economy. Depending on the state of economy, Beijing could elect to retaliate with its own tariff hikes for those products already targeted in its $60 billion penalty.

China could also take “unconventional” measures like placing barriers on American investments or introducing regulatory hurdles on American companies already operating within its borders. It might also choose to reduce its holdings of U.S. securities, though that risk could be contained by potential risks to financial stability, Citi’s strategists wrote.

“This scenario would have negative implications for global trade and global growth, potential for nonlinearities in U.S. inflation, and overall a negative confidence shock affecting investment decisions and market sentiment,” Rojas wrote.

Citi strategists think the expected drag to global growth would be a bullish sign for Treasurys, and term premiums would remain depressed. However, the lower-term premium could be at risk if China sells its Treasury holdings. Citi strategists think that global equities could be down about 10 to 15 percent in the short term.

Consumer technology giant Apple, in particular, could be vulnerable to worsening U.S.-China relations.

“When we assess our coverage the company with the most exposure is Apple, which has approximately 15 percent of its sales into China and we note Apple’s source code and IP is not open unlike the Android platform,” IT hardware analyst Jim Suva wrote. “We note other large cap stocks such as IBM and Cisco have for many years de-emphasized China due to competition from Huawei and corporations which favor local China solutions.”

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Journalism’s top honors awarded amid attacks on the press

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The South Florida Sun Sentinel and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette won Pulitzer Prizes on Monday and were recognized along with the Capital Gazette of Maryland for their coverage of three horrifying mass shootings in 2018 at a high school, a synagogue and a newsroom itself.

The Associated Press won in the international reporting category for documenting the humanitarian horrors of Yemen’s civil war, while The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal were honored for delving into President Donald Trump’s finances and breaking open the hush-money scandals involving two women who said they had affairs with him.

The Florida paper received the Pulitzer in public service for its coverage of the massacre of 17 people at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland and for detailing the shortcomings in school discipline and security that contributed to the carnage.

The Post-Gazette received the prize in the breaking news category for its reporting on the synagogue rampage that left 11 people dead. The man awaiting trial in the attack railed against Jews before, during and after the massacre, authorities said.

After the Pulitzer announcement, the newsroom in Pittsburgh observed a moment of silence for the victims. At the Sun Sentinel, too, the staff took in the award in a sober spirit.

“We’re mindful of what it is that we won for,” Editor-in-Chief Julie Anderson said. “There are still families grieving, so it’s not joy, it’s almost … I don’t know how to describe it. We’re emotional, as well.”

So, too, at the Capital Gazette, which was given a special citation for its coverage and courage in the face of a massacre in its own newsroom. The Pulitzer board also gave the paper an extraordinary $100,000 grant to further its journalism.

“Clearly, there were a lot of mixed feelings,” said Rick Hutzell, editor of Capital Gazette Communications. “No one wants to win an award for something that kills five of your friends.”

The Annapolis-based newspaper published on schedule, with some help from The Baltimore Sun, the day after five staffers were shot and killed in one of the deadliest attacks on journalists in U.S. history. The man charged had a longstanding grudge against the paper.

The Pulitzers, U.S. journalism’s highest honor, reflected a year when journalism also came under attack in other ways.

Reuters won an international reporting award for work that cost two of its staffers their liberty: coverage of a brutal crackdown on Rohingya Muslims by security forces in Myanmar.

Reporters Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo are serving a seven-year sentence after being convicted of violating the country’s Official Secrets Act. Their supporters say the two were framed in retaliation for their reporting.

Reuters also won the breaking news photography award for images of Central and South American migrants heading to the U.S.

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Scenes of Notre Dame Cathedral in flames

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People watch the landmark Notre-Dame Cathedral burning in central Paris on April 15, 2019- A fire broke out at the landmark Notre-Dame Cathedral in central Paris, potentially involving renovation works being carried out at the site, the fire service said. (Photo by Nicolas Liponne/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Nicolas Liponne | NurPhoto | Getty Images

People watch the landmark Notre-Dame Cathedral burning in central Paris on April 15, 2019- A fire broke out at the landmark Notre-Dame Cathedral in central Paris, potentially involving renovation works being carried out at the site, the fire service said. (Photo by Nicolas Liponne/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

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Paris’ Notre Dame Cathedral on fire

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The roof of Paris’ Notre Dame Cathedral collapsed as a massive fire ripped through the structure on Monday, days before Easter.

Paris Mayor Anne Hildago and firefighters warned people to stay away from the area. There have been no confirmed deaths, according to Paris police, while a French government official said no injuries had yet been reported.

No injuries were reported in the early stages of the blaze. It was not immediately clear what had caused the fire, while local media reported that police in the city were treating it as an accident. The Paris Prosecutor’s office announced that it has started an inquiry into the fire

Emergency services also attempted to salvage the artwork stored in the cathedral, which had been undergoing renovations.



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