Connect with us

Politics

Retiring Republicans are practically handing House seats to Democrats

Published

on

Incumbency is one of the most powerful forces in politics, and Republicans are losing it at a nearly unprecedented clip in some of the places where it matters most.

On the heels of Ryan’s bombshell, Rep. Dennis Ross, R-Fla., announced he, too, will not run for re-election, setting off a flurry of questions and speculation in Washington about who might be next.

Vulnerable Republicans have abandoned re-election bids from Florida to California, with more congressional retirements this year than at any point since World War II, except for 1992, according to Kyle Kondik, an analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

“Democrats should be able to pick up a significant chunk of the 24 seats they need to win the House just from open seats,” Kondik said.

Republicans now have 39 open seats to defend, compared with 20 for the Democrats. And 24 Republicans have decided to retire without seeking higher office, versus just nine Democrats, according to an NBC News tally.

Ryan’s own Wisconsin district is a good example of the problem.

On paper, the district leans moderately Republican (Barack Obama carried it in 2008), but Ryan has won landslide after landslide since being elected in 1998.

As soon as he announced he wasn’t running, handicappers moved the contest to replace him from “likely Republican” to a “toss-up.”

Flipping the incumbency dynamic on its head, it’s now the Democratic candidates in the race who have a head start in fundraising, while Republicans have to get through a primary to select their candidate,

“You take a seat in even remotely swing district range and make it open and it becomes a prime target,” said Ethan Todras-Whitehill, the founder of SwingLeft, a new liberal group working to flip the House.

Ninety-eight percent of members of Congress won re-election in 2016, according to the nonpartisan group FairVote, which estimated the “the incumbency bump” is worth about 8 percentage points.

Republicans downplay the significance of the issue, with National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Rep. Steve Stivers, R-Ohio, saying on CNN the retirements are “not a big deal.”

GOP operatives working on House races this year note Democrats have their own open seat woes, like two Minnesota districts that Republicans are favored to carry, and a toss-up in Connecticut where a Democrat is stepping aside after getting caught covering up a staffer’s misconduct. And messy Democratic primaries could end up costing the party key open seats, the Republicans say.

But in Florida and Pennsylvania, Republican retirements have essentially handed seats to Democrats, while vacancies in California and elsewhere have significantly improved the opposition’s chances.

And everyone agrees all Republicans have the wind in their faces in November midterm elections.

“I think there’s a lot of weariness and a lot of exhaustion frankly,” retiring Rep. Charlie Dent, R-Penn., told reporters in the Capitol Wednesday. “This is going to be a challenging year.”

Meanwhile, it remains to be seen if Ryan can maintain his incomparable fundraising prowess, which has been crucial to his party, as a lame duck.

“I know the speaker remains personally committed to ensuring (the Congressional Leadership Fund) continues to succeed and has the resources it needs to maintain the House Majority,” said Corry Bliss, the executive director of the CLF, a super PAC.

Few expect Ryan’s absence will directly move many votes, since Democrats never managed to turn Ryan into a villain the way Republicans have with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.

But with Ryan being the most prominent holdover from the pre-Trump Republican Party, his departure may cement Trump’s takeover in the mind of voters. Educated suburbanites who might have looked to Ryan for assurance may not be as happy with his replacement.

“The next leader of the House GOP, whether they’re speaker or minority leader, will be somebody with Trump’s fingerprints,” Jolly said, “because the only way to accede to power in today’s GOP is with Trump’s blessing.”

Source link

Politics

Brexit deal on BRINK: EU fears UK will leave with no deal ahead of last-ditch crunch talks

Published

on

EUROCRATS are working on the assumption Britain will quit the European Union without a Brexit deal, it has emerged.

Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

Bumble Bee responds to Trump’s claim about protesters throwing cans of tuna

Published

on

Bumble Bee Seafoods on Tuesday responded to President Donald Trump’s fishy claim that protesters used cans of tuna to chuck at law enforcement amid civil unrest prompted by the deaths of Black Americans by police.

“They go out and buy tuna fish and soup. You know that right? … Because they throw it, they throw it, it’s the perfect weight — tuna fish,” Trump said at a rally in Pittsburgh on Tuesday. “They can really rip it, right? And that hits you. No, it’s true. Bumble Bee brand tuna.”

There have been no media reports of police being hit with cans of tuna. Bumble Bee Seafoods responded to the claim in a tweet on Tuesday.

“Eat em. Don’t throw em,” the company said on its official Twitter.

In 2018, The company said Trump’s tariffs on Chinese tuna would be “devastating” for the business.

There have been nationwide protests following the killings of George Floyd, Ahmaud Arbery and Breonna Taylor and the shooting of Jacob Blake, a 29-year-old Black man, in Kenosha, Wisconsin.

Trump has used his re-election rallies to spread falsehoods about the protests and boast his law and order message and his pledge to quell the unrest in cities.

He claimed at Tuesday’s rally and others that mostly Democratic cities have been overrun by “anarchists.” Though police have violently clashed with demonstrators, many of the protests have remained largely peaceful.

On Monday, the Justice Department released a list of cities that it has deemed “anarchist jurisdictions” under Trump’s instructions this month to review federal funding for local governments in places where violence or vandalism has occurred during protests.

Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

EU crisis: Shock member state set to leave bloc after Brexit after issue ignored by bloc

Published

on

A BREXITEER has predicted one surprising nation will push to leave the EU after Brexit due to frustration with the bloc.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending