Private jet demand is booming — to the extent that companies can’t produce them quickly enough and buyers are facing extended wait periods for deliveries.
Even secondhand business jets are vanishing from the market.
“If you look at today compared to 2019, the market has almost exploded,” John Schmidt, global aerospace and defense industry lead at consultancy Accenture, told CNBC at the Dubai Air Show.
The pandemic has converted a lot of travelers to private flying, many for the first time. But analysts say the trend is primarily attributable to a wealth boom in the last year and a half, specifically at the top echelons of society as more companies go public, the stock market hits record highs and spenders enjoy an extended period of low interest rates.
Business jet take-offs and landings in the U.S. are up 40% year-on-year — and at their highest point since before the 2008 financial crisis, according to Morgan Stanley.
Public listings by companies in the U.S. have already hit record highs in 2021. Data from Jefferies Equity Research shows that as IPO activity climbed, the volume of business jet deliveries rose in correlation with it.
The market is also drawing in individual buyers looking for safer and more exclusive travel that guarantees greater reliability than commercial flying, which has been hampered by Covid-19 travel regulations.
Amid the rise in demand in the high-end industry and rising inflation, prices of both new and used jets are are seeing their highest levels in years.
Inventory of used jets — the proportion of aircraft for sale versus the number of said aircraft in existence globally — is at record lows, around or below 3% for most major jet manufacturers including Cessna, Dassault, Gulfstream, Bombardier and Embraer, Jefferies says.
Private flight activity is not only up in the U.S. but also 20% higher in Europe, Schmidt said. “Things are really tight in used business jet aircraft, inventories the lowest we’ve seen in years, and yet prices are 20 to 30% higher,” he added. “So it’s a really hot market right now.”
First-time entrants to the private jet market now make up over 30% of buyers, according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs. For Embraer Chief Commercial Officer Stephen Friedrich, what stands out is the growth in consumer base.
“The addressable market right now for business jets has expanded. The pie has gotten bigger,” Friedrich said. “And the result is from continued wealth creation of over 12% when you take a look at the billionaires in the world, but also from what was traditionally Fortune 100 and large private companies.”
“People are looking for ways to become more productive, more certain in the missions that they have to perform,” he added, describing business aviation as a “productivity tool.”
“Can you fly direct from New York City to Muscle Shoals, Alabama, on a commercial flight? No,” Friedrich said. For the companies or individuals with the wealth to own a business jet, journeys that would take a full day of travel are reduced to a few hours.
Cabin pressurization in business jets is also significantly lower than that of commercial airliners — for some, it’s less than half. That difference means passengers feel significantly less fatigued upon landing, making multiple city stops and meetings much easier. Embraer’s flagship Praetor 600 has a cabin altitude of 5,800 feet while Dassault’s Falcon 6X has a cabin altitude of 3,900 feet. Compare that to an average cabin altitude up to 8,000 feet for commercial jets.
Private jet charter company VistaJet reported a 29% increase in new members over the past year, with 71% of new requests coming from passengers who did not regularly use private aviation before.
It also found that more that half of its new private aviation users — 53% — will keep flying privately on a regular basis post-pandemic.
Wealth creation since the pandemic has been starkly unequal, with U.S. billionaires getting approximately 62% richer – gaining more than $1.8 trillion– since March of 2020, according to U.S. think tank the Institute for Policy Studies.
Private jets were a fairly common sight at the COP26 climate summit in November, drawing intense criticism from environmental activists, who say that 1% of air travelers are responsible for 50% of the industry’s carbon emissions.
A recent report by the European campaign group Transport & Environment found that private jets are 5 to 14 times more polluting per passenger than commercial planes and that in one hour, a single private jet can emit two tons of CO2. The group also found that in Europe alone, CO2 emissions from private jets increased by 31% between 2005 and 2019, outpacing the growth in commercial jet emissions.
Executives in the industry say that sustainability is becoming a key priority for their businesses. Embraer has made a pledge to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2040, and charter business jet provider VistaJet aims for the same by 2050.
To this end, some carriers are starting to use sustainable aviation fuels, or SAF, which generate 80% less CO2 emissions over its full life cycle than fossil fuels. But the pickup has been slow so far.
That’s because sustainable aviation fuels are expensive and difficult to obtain, said Accenture’s Schmidt, although there are currently more than 20 locations globally where sustainable aviation fuels can be found. Private jet charter service NetJets in November celebrated a year of using SAF, having flown 2.5 million nautical miles on the cleaner fuel.
“I see (SAF) as being the next step in sustainability for business aviation, followed by new programs, new engines, and the continuation of technologies to drive sustainability,” Schmidt said.
There are 3.7 billion gallons of SAF in forward purchase agreements, according to the International Air Transport Association. Twenty six million gallons of SAF will be produced in 2021, and some 45 airlines have experience using the fuels. More than 370,000 flights have been made using SAF since 2016.
“What we found is we knew it was good for business to make sure that we had a sustainable product,” Embraer’s Friedrich said. “It’s not just the right thing to do, it’s also good for business. It’s the right thing to do for the company.”
The coming years will tell whether companies’ promises result in long-term change. But given the spike in private flying, which industry analysts expect to continue, any substantial reduction in the damage it causes is likely a long way away.
European Central Bank heads into pivotal meeting with omicron infections rising
Christine Lagarde, president of the ECB, speaks at the Bank’s press conference in Frankfurt, Germany.
Boris Roessler | picture alliance | Getty Images
With inflation surging and the omicron Covid variant expected to spread through the region, the European Central Bank has the unenviable task of presenting its policy outlook for 2022 on Thursday.
The rise in the cost of living for the euro area (the 19 nations that share the euro) reached a record high of 4.9% in November, while omicron looks likely to become the dominant coronavirus strain with some European economies already locked down due to the delta variant.
“The sharp rise in infections and inflation and the emergence of the new Omicron variant has complicated the picture to an extent that the Governing Council may need more time to decide on all the details of adjusting its non-conventional policy tool,” said Dirk Schumacher, an ECB watcher with Natixis, in a recent research note.
The institution led by Christine Lagarde developed a new bond-buying program in the wake of the coronavirus in March 2020 to support the euro zone. The PEPP is due to end in March 2022 with a potential total envelope of 1.85 trillion euros ($2.19 trillion).
The ECB has also kept its asset purchase program, known as APP, amid the pandemic which has a current monthly pace of 20 billion euros. The central bank has been using this program in combination with PEPP to sustain the 19-member economy.
Schumacher added that Natixis still expects an announcement that the PEPP program will end by March and “we expect a clear signal that the APP will be used in a more flexible way.”
A big focus of this week’s meeting will be the new staff projections for inflation and growth. They show whether the inflation target of 2% will be met over the medium term, which is ultimately ECB’s primary mandate.
“I see an inflation profile which looks like a hump. So it has clearly increased over the last three quarters and we know how painful it is,” Lagarde said at a Reuters conference on Dec. 3,
“And a hump eventually declines and this is what we project for 2022,” she added.
Another key question is how the ECB will bridge the end of the PEPP program at the end of March into a more flexible and potentially larger APP without provoking major market volatility and keeping financial conditions on “favourable” terms. The ECB is expected to stress the need for flexibility.
“Flexibility, in our view, means varying purchases depending on the inflation outlook and financing conditions, i.e. preserving the principle of ‘favourable financing conditions’ that characterises the PEPP,” Spyros Andreopoulos, a senior European economist at BNP Paribas, said in a note.
“This view has been supported by recent ECB rhetoric that has emphasised the need to maintain flexibility, as opposed to pre-committing to a fixed volume of purchases.”
UK inflation hits 10-year high ahead of key Bank of England meeting
Shoppers wearing protective face masks walk through the rain on Oxford Street in London on June 18, 2020, as some non-essential retailers reopen from their coronavirus shutdown.
Tolga Akmen/AFP/Getty Images
LONDON — U.K. inflation climbed to a 10-year high in November as consumer prices continued to soar ahead of the Bank of England‘s crunch monetary policy meeting on Thursday.
The Consumer Price Index rose by 5.1% in the 12 months to November, up from 4.2% in October, which was itself the steepest incline for a decade and more than double the central bank’s target.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a reading of 4.7% for November, and the Bank of England had projected that inflation would hit 5% in the spring of 2022 before moderating towards its 2% target in late 2023.
On a monthly basis, U.K. inflation rose 0.7% in November from October, above a Reuters poll for a 0.4% increase.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, rose by 4% year-on-year against a Reuters forecast of 3.7%, and 0.5% month-on-month versus a 0.3% projection.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meets Thursday to decide whether to tighten monetary policy, with inflation surging and the labor market remaining robust, but the rapid spread of the omicron Covid-19 variant has cast fresh uncertainty over the economic recovery in the short term.
The MPC defied market expectations in November by voting 7-2 to hold interest rates at their historic low of 0.1%, but analysts are split on whether it will pull the trigger on rate hikes on Thursday in light of the emergence of omicron.
“Unfortunately for consumers, peak inflation may still be a few months off. Today’s CPI data only serves to increase the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates at its MPC meeting tomorrow,” said Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot.
“However, the Bank of England may well decide that discretion is the better part of valour and instead opt to wait until next year given the current uncertainty surrounding the impact of the Omicron variant on the economy, coupled with the risk that further restrictions may need to be introduced before long.”
Most Chinese companies could delist from US, says TCW Group
Budrul Chukrut | LightRocket | Getty Images
Chinese companies listed on Wall Street will likely to be cut off from U.S. capital markets in the next three years as tensions between Beijing and Washington persist, says one global asset management firm.
“I think for a lot of Chinese companies listed in U.S. markets, it’s essentially game over,” David Loevinger, managing director for emerging markets sovereign research at TCW Group, told CNBC Wednesday. “This is an issue that’s been hanging out there for 20 years — we haven’t been able to solve it.”
TCW Group had $265.8 billion in assets under management as of September 30, 2021, according to the company’s website.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission this month finalized rules to implement a law that would allow the market regulator to ban foreign companies listed in the U.S. from trading if their auditors do not comply with requests for information from American regulators.
The law was passed in 2020 after Chinese regulators repeatedly denied requests from the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board to inspect the audits of Chinese firms that list and trade in the United States.
Given the current level of distrust between the U.S. and Chinese governments, and with the bilateral relationship unlikely to improve anytime soon, there is “no way we are going to solve this in the next few years,” Loevinger said.
“So the reality is, I think, by 2024, most Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges are no longer going to be listed in the United States. Most are going to gravitate back to Hong Kong or Shanghai,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.”
Less than six months after going public, Chinese ride-hailing giant Didi said it will start delisting from the New York Stock Exchange, and make plans to list in Hong Kong instead.
When a company delists from an exchange like the Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange, it loses access to a broad pool of buyers, sellers and intermediaries.
Chinese regulators were reportedly unhappy with Didi’s decision to list in the U.S. without first resolving outstanding cybersecurity concerns. Regulators told the firm’s executives to come up with a plan to delist from the U.S. due to concerns around data leakage, according to reports.
Beyond Didi, many of China’s top internet companies listed in the U.S. have already undertaken dual listings in Hong Kong. Some high-profile names include e-commerce giant Alibaba, its rival JD.com, search engine giant Baidu, gaming firm NetEase and social media giant Weibo.
“We have already hit the turning point,” Loevinger said, pointing to Didi’s delisting announcement. “I just don’t think China’s government is going to allow U.S. regulators to have unfettered access to internal auditing documents of Chinese companies.”
“And if U.S. regulators can’t get access to those documents, then they can’t protect U.S. markets from fraud,” he added.