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Stocks face another turbulent week as the third quarter winds down

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A trader works inside a post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), August 27, 2021.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

After recent turbulence, markets are likely to close out the final week of the third quarter with another bout of volatility.

Stocks in the past week traded with big extremes. First, fears of financial contagion coming from Chinese developer Evergrande sent stocks skidding Monday. Losses were reversed by Thursday, when the market ripped higher. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were positive for the week, while the Nasdaq eked out a gain.

“I think this market turmoil has yet to conclude,” said Sam Stovall, CFRA chief investment strategist. “Certainly September is doing what it normally does. It frustrates investors.”

The three major stock indices were also higher for the third quarter so far.

Strategists say how the market trades in the coming week may be the most important development, after the wild swings in stocks and also the rapid rise in Treasury yields late in the week. The 10-year, at about 1.3% on Wednesday shot up to nearly 1.46% by Friday.

The S&P 500 was down about 1.4% for the month of September so far. “We are getting long in the tooth. The technical indicators are pointing to distribution. We’re seeing prices roll over, breadth roll over. You’re seeing sentiment roll over,” said Stovall. He said the breadth needs to improve, and many stocks are trading below their 200-day moving average.

October is a ‘seismic’ month

“I think October will be true to itself, which is a very volatile month. October’s volatility is 36% higher than the average of the other 11 months of the year,” Stovall said. “Volatility is higher and you have a greater number of pullbacks, corrections and bear markets that either start or end in the month. It is a seismic month.”

Wealth management firm Wellington Shields warns that the fact many stocks have fallen below their 200-day moving average is a negative for the market. Just 59% of the stocks on the New York Stock Exchange remain above it, or in an uptrend, according to the firm. The 200-day moving average is the average of the last 200 closing prices of a stock or index, and it’s viewed as a momentum indicator.

“The rule is that when this 200-day number drops from above 80% to below 60%, it usually goes below 30%. Forgetting that, the real point is that while most stocks may be advancing, barely more than half are advancing enough to be in uptrends. With the market just a few percent below its highs, this is a concern,” Wellington said in a note.

What to watch

In the coming week, there are a few key economic reports including including durable goods Monday and ISM manufacturing Friday. There is also personal consumption expenditure data Friday, which the Federal Reserve monitors for its inflation index.

The Federal Reserve will remain a big focus in the week ahead. There will be a host of Fed speakers, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell who testifies twice before Congress on the pandemic and the policy response to it. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will join him for the hearings Tuesday and Thursday. Powell also appears on a European Central Bank panel with other central bank leaders Wednesday.

Investors will also be watching Congress in the week ahead as it attempts to pass a funding plan in time to avert a government shutdown Oct. 1. The debt ceiling is expected to be part of that debate, but strategists do not expect it to be resolved at the same time. They say this could hang over the markets for several weeks before Congress raises the debt ceiling.

Fed speakers are not expected to provide any new information, but they could fine tune their message after the central bank signaled this past Wednesday that it expects to begin paring down its $120 billion in in monthly bond purchases soon. The Fed also released a new forecast for interest rates, which revealed that half of the 18 Fed officials expect to raise interest rates next year.

“I think what the Fed’s achieved so far is a taper without a tantrum,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

“I think a lot of people who invest in the market have a sense they are skating on thin ice, and any crack could be a big one… people are highly sensitive and nervous because they know valuations are stretched,” he said. “That means we should expect these episodic jumps in volatility.”

Chandler said the market will need to digest the recent moves, particularly the move higher in Treasury yields.

“What we’ve got to wait for now is finding this new equilibrium. What kind of market should we expect? Trending? Or do we try to find a range?” he said. “I think we find a range. We need some hurdles to pass.” Chandler said one hurdle is the September jobs report on Oct. 8.

The Fed is expected to taper its $120 billion monthly bond purchases unless there is shockingly weak employment data. “That is the only thing that stands in the way of Fed tapering,” Chandler said.

Wells Fargo’s Michael Schumacher, said the quarter end could be quiet in terms of big funds rebalancing. “The equity market bounced around. It’s up on the quarter. That wasn’t much when you compare it to the bond performance,” he said.

The 10-year yield made an unusually volatile round trip move in the third quarter. It was 1.47% on June 30, and it was as high as 1.46% Friday. In between it dipped to 1.12% in early August. Schumacher said the bond market could be quieter ahead of the quarter end, and the 10-year yield could then resume its move higher.

Some strategists watch the 10-year Treasury yield as a leading indicator for stocks. It is also linked to moves in technology and other high-growth stocks.

What’s next

Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, said high growth and tech are susceptible now to moves in the 10-year Treasury yield. She said the technology sector is the most overbought in relative terms, when comparing the sector to the S&P 500. The S&P tech sector was up about 0.8% for the week, and it was up nearly 6% for the quarter.

“We would consider reducing exposure to growthy ETFs like ARKK and would be respectful of any breakdowns,” said Stockton.

Investors have been fixated on the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average. For the first time this year, the index broke below and closed under the average for multiple sessions this past week. By Thursday, it regained the 50-day and finished above it. The broad-market index closed above the 50-day moving average on Friday.

The 50-day is literally the average of the last 50 closing prices, and it is viewed as an important momentum indicator, just as the 200-day moving average is. A break above could signal a positive move, and a break below it could mean more downside.

Stockton said the relief rally in the S&P 500 could resume in the coming week. “But we think it will fade by the end of the week given the downturns in our intermediate-term indicators. We expect the SPX to make a lower high,” she wrote in a note.

She expects the 10-year Treasury yield could continue higher. “Momentum appears to be shifting to the upside and next resistance is near 1.53%. The breakout should benefit the financial sector, which saw significant outperformance [Thursday],” Stockton noted.

Week ahead calendar

Monday

Earnings: Aurora Cannabis

8:00 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans

8:30 a.m. Durable goods

12:50 p.m. Fed Governor Lael Brainard

Tuesday

Earnings: IHS Markit, Micron, Cal-Maine Foods, Thor Industries, United Natural Foods, FactSet

8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators

9:00 a.m. Chicago Fed’s Evans

9:00 a.m. S&P Case-Shiller home prices

9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices

10:00 a.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen before Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on pandemic response

10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence

1:40 p.m. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman

3:00 p.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

7:00 p.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard

Wednesday

Earnings: Jabil, Cintas, Herman Miller

10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

11:45 a.m. Fed Chairman Powell on European Central Bank panel

2:00 p.m. Atlanta Fed’s Bostic

Thursday

Earnings: Jefferies Financial, CarMax, Bed Bath & Beyond, Paychex

8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims

8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q2

9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI

10:00 a.m. Fed Chairman Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen before House Financial Services Committee

11:00 p.m. Atlanta Fed’s Bostic

11:30 p.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker

12:05 p.m. St. Louis Fed’s Bullard

12:30 p.m. Chicago Fed’s Evans

Friday

Monthly vehicle sales

8:30 a.m. Personal income and spending

10:00 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing

10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

10:00 a.m. Construction spending

11:00 a.m. Philadelphia Fed’s Harker

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Xpeng launches XPILOT 3.5 semi-autonomous driving features

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A new Xpeng P7 car is shown in the Xpeng Motors flagship store in a shopping mall. Xpeng P7 is one of the two popular models of Xpeng motors.

Zhang Peng | LightRocket | Getty Images

GUANGZHOU, China — Chinese electric car start-up Xpeng released updates for its semi-autonomous driving system as its looks to up its challenge to Tesla in China.

Xpeng released XPILOT 3.5, the latest version of its advanced driver-assistance system, or ADAS. This refers to a driving software system with some autonomous features but where a driver is still required.

With XPILOT 3.5, the company will be launching a feature called City NGP, which stands for navigation guided pilot. The system allows Xpeng’s cars to change lanes, speed up or slow down, or overtake cars and enter and exit highways. Previously the system was designed just for highways, but now Xpeng will be releasing this feature for driving in cities.

XPILOT 3.5 will be available to owners of Xpeng’s P5 car, which was launched this year. The upgrade will be rolled out to customers in the first half of 2022.

Xpeng also announced details of the next-generation ADAS called XPILOT 4.0. The company said that it has upgraded the hardware that will power XPILOT 4.0 and will include features including vehicle switch-on to assisted parking.

XPILOT 4.0 is slated for rollout in the first half of 2023.

XPILOT is Xpeng’s rival to Tesla’s ADAS called Autopilot. Competition in China’s electric vehicle market continues to heat up. Automakers are looking to launch features and vehicles to differentiate themselves and stand out in what is becoming an increasingly crowded market.

Xpeng also launched a new charger for its cars. The company says that with just five minutes of charging with the new charger, the car’s battery will have a range of 200 kilometers. 

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A neuroscientist shares the 4 brain-changing benefits of exercise—and how much she does every week

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When we think about the benefits of exercise, we usually think of better sleep, more energy, maintaining a healthy weight, stronger muscles or a healthier heart.

These are all true. But we rarely consider the immediate effects that physical activity can have on the most important organ in our bodies: the brain.

Through my years of research as a neuroscientist, I’ve found that exercising is one of the most transformative things you can do to improve cognitive abilities, such as learning, thinking, memory, focus and reasoning — all of which can help you become smarter and live longer.

How exercise boosts your brain health

1. It decreases feelings of anxiety

Studies have shown that every time your move your body, a number of beneficial neurotransmitters, including dopamine, norepinephrine, serotonin and acetylcholine, gets released into your brain.

These substances can decrease feelings of anxiety and depression. (Think of them as a neurochemical “bubble bath” for your brain.)

It only takes between 10 and 30 minutes of daily physical activity to instantly life your mood. No gym membership? Take a short walk, or use the stairs instead of the elevator.

When I’m crunched for time, I’ll simply pace a few laps around my dining room table.

2. It improves your focus and concentration

In one of my lab experiments, I found that a single workout can help improve your ability to shift and focus attention.

This is an immediate benefit that can last for at least two hours after 30 minutes of exercise. I recommend activities that increase your heart rate, such as brisk walking, running, swimming, cycling, playing tennis or jumping rope.

Studies have also shown that one workout session can improve your reaction times — which means, for example, that you’re going to be much faster at catching that cup of coffee before it falls off the table.

3. It promotes the growth of new brain cells

One of the most significant benefits of exercise, scientists have found, is that it promotes neurogenesis, or the birth of new brain cells. This is essential to improving cognitive function.

Researchers have shown in rats and mice that running ramps up the creation of new brain cells in the hippocampus, a small seahorse-shaped part of the brain devoted to memory formation and storage.

Exercise also can improve the health and function of the synapses between neurons in this region, allowing brain cells to better communicate.

4. It protects your brain from aging and neurodegenerative diseases

Imagine your brain as a muscle: the more workout you put into it, the stronger and bigger it gets.

Longitudinal studies in humans suggest that regular exercise can increase the size of the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex, both of which are susceptible to neurodegenerative diseases such as dementia and Alzheimer’s.

So while exercising won’t completely prevent or cure normal cognitive decline in aging, doing it consistently can help reduce or delay the onset of it. In many ways, exercise is like a supercharged 401(k) for your brain — and it’s even better, because it’s free.

You don’t have to become a triathlete



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Elon Musk reposted 28-year-old’s meme, it sold as an NFT for $20,000

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It’s no secret that billionaire Elon Musk loves memes. He frequently reposts them on Twitter, where he has 61 million followers.

Though some dislike his reposting, as he often neglects to give the original meme creators credit, others have profited from Musk’s practice, including self-proclaimed “hobby artist” Eva Beylin.

Beylin was thrilled when Musk reposted her meme on Wednesday. “The ultimate prize of memeology is for the ultimate meme lord to use your meme,” Beylin, 28, tells CNBC Make It.

Even though Musk didn’t give her any attribution, “I am over the moon,” she says, adding that she’s a big fan of Musk.

Beylin’s meme, which she named “Love in The Time of Web3,” depicts a cartoon couple admiring the prices of bitcoin and ether, which are $69,000 and $4,200, respectively, in the meme. While the price of bitcoin hasn’t hit $69,000, the numbers are an obvious nod to meme culture.

As the director of The Graph Foundation, which supports blockchain data protocol The Graph, Beylin is passionate about Web3, which is the decentralized iteration of the internet that powers blockchain-based applications like NFTs.

“Love in The Time of Web3” got a lot of attention following Musk’s tweet. That night, Beylin listed it as an NFT, or nonfungible token, on marketplace Zora, and two days later, it sold for five wrapped ether, which is about $19,800 at current pricing, to an anonymous buyer.

“It is surreal,” Beylin says.

Though it was Beylin’s idea to create the meme, she did not design the image of the cartoon couple or edit the prices of bitcoin and ether.

Beylin was inspired to create the meme after seeing a post by another Twitter user who edited the cryptocurrency prices and tweeted it as a joke.

To compensate the user, who is known as @shegenerates, Beylin gave her 20% of the proceeds from the NFT sale. Shegenerates was fine with Beylin using her edit, she tells CNBC Make It.

“Personally, I have [Musk] blocked on Twitter, so I only saw it after Eva [Beylin] posted about him sharing it. I wish I got all those likes myself because I can only imagine how much serotonin my brain would make with all that attention, but memes are permissionless, so it’s just cool to see things I shared around,” Shegenerates says.

Beylin doesn’t know the creator of the image depicting the cartoon couple. And because of the legal gray area that NFTs exist in, it’s not clear whether the use of this image infringes on any potential copyright laws.

With her cut of the sale, Beylin plans to reinvest in other artists by buying their NFTs.

“As a hobby artist, I’d never be able to reinvest in art or have my art paid for [without NFTs]. So, my thing has always been reinvesting back into NFTs,” she says.

The buyer of “Love in The Time of Web3” has already relisted the meme for 69.42 wrapped ether, or about $275,000. Though it’s less than the buyer’s asking price, a bidder already offered 6.94 wrapped ether, or about $27,500, for the meme.

If it resells, Beylin will earn a 15% royalty, she says.

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Don’t miss: This 12-year-old coder helped develop an NFT collection that made over $5 million in 3 weeks



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