In January, Trump demanded that France, Germany, the U.K. and the U.S. Congress “fix” the deal by May 12, by committing to tougher measures against Iran.
Eurasia Group’s Chairman Cliff Kupchan said in a note Wednesday that the agreement is unlikely “to survive President Donald Trump’s first term in office” and that the “re-imposition of U.S. secondary sanctions” – the sanctions that prevent other countries from doing business with Iran — is likely.
He said Iran, a country that has got its economy back on its feet thanks to the nuclear deal, would likely react with “rhetorical fury” to such a scenario and could “likely lash out” in the Middle East. He explained this could mean Iran using a more aggressive policy in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen or — most dangerously — toward Saudi Arabia.
With no love lost between Trump and Iran, the political consultancy reduced the odds of the nuclear deal’s survival from 55 percent to 35 percent as it described the main dangers to the deal.
Why the deal is likely to fail
The first threat to the Iran nuclear deal comes in the form of the appointment of “Iran hawks” John Bolton as national security advisor (he replaces HR McMaster on April 9) and Mike Pompeo as secretary of state.
Kapchan said the combination of Bolton and Pompeo’s appointments, coupled with “insufficient progress by the European parties and the U.S. Congress on ‘fixing’ the nuclear deal, now make it unlikely that the agreement will survive President Donald Trump’s first term in office.”